Think Tank

Every country has a vivid potential of exporting certain intellectual capital that can come in handy for economical development on the one hand as well as soft power expansion on the other hand.

Soft power

The importance of soft power policies can visually be seen in various legislational initiatives and governmental priorities of the EU that try to expand human rights as defined in International Law in a global spectrum. This expansion is illustratively present in day to day business transactions and sanctional policies and boycotts with a bottom-up approach.

However soft power expansion can also have a quiet nasty impact when it comes to hindering bi- or multilateral economical activities. One such example is the governmental 3C-Management with autocracies which is heavily protested by leftists all over the media.

Notwithstanding this, various idealistic activists take this as a chance to promote their own point of view of climate change that is a borderliner to idealistic Fanatism in light of a will to initiate a forceful shutdown of the oil and gas industry.

Oil and Gas industry

Public Relation initiatives that are mostly manifested in a bottom up approach are such against the oil and gas industry, using negatively connotated highlighters like "Lobbyism" "Corruption" and what have you.

However one must seriously confront this idea on the basis of their teleological value and once done so, one sees that there is no sense in these as at all. This approach is a disastrous approach as it is not problem-solving but purely lamentative.

Climate Change cannot be neglected manifested in the definition of the Paris Agreement in year 2015, however it is these "nasty flies" that are manifests of a leftist democratic fanatism, that damage the reputation of a green climate protection policy. Hence there is a need of if necessary legally prosecute initiatives like the unreasonable protests of an initiative called "The last generation" in Berlin. Hence there is a need legislational adjustment that for harmonizational purposes shall be carried out in the form of EU Regulations rather than Directives.

Integrating QM for Soft Power Excellence

Substantially I have to agree with the point of view of the Saudi foreign Minister HRH Prince Farhan al Saud in the WEF, who highlighted the need of a holistic approach of promoting climate protection on the one hand and simultaneously to protect and optimize our current energy resources, vested in Oil and Gas.

One way to do so is to integrate Quality Management concepts as done in Business Engineering in order to fill Sustainability Activism with the necessary teleological value as mentioned above.

Such a Quality Management concept that can come in handy for such holisticism is the DMAIC Concept of the Six Sigma Discipline. The DMAIC Concept is not statically focused on the sole certification of standards like ISO 9000 etc., as it teaches us to Define, Measure, Act, Implement and Check processes and by this reach Excellence in holistic problem-solving.

Based on this concept we can shortly audit CCUS-Technologies based on the DMAIC concept as a means to pay tribute to a holistic approach.

Define: CCUS is a means to provide sustainability for the Oil and Gas Industry by simply said catching and processing CO2-Emissions.

Measure: Based on IEA reports CCUS facilities currently capture almost 45 Mt CO2 globally. There are around 35 commercial facilities applying CCUS to industrial processes, fuel transformation and power generation, that generate the above mentioned amount of captures.

Analyze: We can see that there is a problem in light of methane emissions through the CCUS mechanism, that can be far more dangerous to the environment than CO2-Emissions. Furthermore CCUS necessitates a higher energy input of 40 %.

Implement: Based on the insight of additional methane emissions, it is necessary to implement scientific research on methane capture utilization and sequestration (MCUS) mechanisms. Notwithstanding this, a solution for the surplus of energy inputs is to run them with green energy facilities like solar, wind and geothermal energy. This is an efficient grid-solution as it does not only promote the importance of greentech, but also upscales the economic value vested in profit generation of these facilities.

Check: The Checking process is the pinnacle of qualitative excellence, as we constantly go on checking problems and solving these by defining new solutions to the problem and implementing the DMAIC concept on and on and on.

Conclusion

It is very important from a reputation management point of view to initiate sustainable activism with a serious amount of value in intellectual capital, vested in logical structures in order to not only effectively promote sustainability in legislation and innovation, but also to guard people from getting disgusted from sustainable policies in toto. This guards international soft power expansion with innovational technological Quality.

In order to promote soft power with such quality, I regard it as necessary to limit certain bottom up approaches for example the so called "last generation protestors" in Berlin, who radically hinder the traffic with their unreasonable protests. It is these protests that underlie a serious fallacy that are hence supposed to be audited based on the above constellation for an intellectual valuation of its quiet "liquified" rather than solid sense.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

One central tool to realize a smooth decarbonization policy is climate change risk management. Climate Change Risk Management is the discipline that promotes a realistic approach in reaching a zero net carbon society as defined exemplary in the European Green Deal and the Paris Agreement.

Types of CC Risk Management

There are three types of Climate Risk Management:

1. Physical Risk Management
2. Standard Asset Type Risk Management
3. Concrete Decarbonization Risk Management

Physical Risk Management is such that deals with natural phenomenas as well as technical ones that can be adjusted and optimized through quality management approaches in Engineering

Standard Asset Type Risk Management is predominant in the Oil and Gas Industry and has an important Financial component. Many Sovereign Wealth Funds like those of Norway and Saudi Arabia are heavily substantiated on the Oil and Gas industry on which occasion a radical shift to a Zero Net Carbon Economy, would be disastric for the economy. Those Risks can thus be mitigated by a holistic approach of diversifying assets as HRH Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman does exemplary by establishing his focus on other areas like Renewables, Tourism, Sports, Robotics and many other sectors to balance eventual losses of decarbonization policies.

Concrete Decarbonization Risk Management involved aspects of the first two types, however what characterizes it specifically is its holistic auditary focus on strategically realizing decarbonization. There is hence a greater diversification in assessment instead of the first two which are specified on natural and financial aspects.

Examples

One example of assessing climate change risk management is exemplary done by Fitch Rankings, who established an "Exposure heat map", assessing a sovereign´s vulnerability with the following points of focus:

1. Investigating a country´s share in Renewables
2. Assessing GHG-Emissions
3. Yield Climate Change Reference indicators
4. Strategic Analysis of leveraging risks through investment

It is based on this risk heat map that Fitch Rankings found out that many central and eastern European countries are despite ambitional legislational actions of the EU quiet back in terms of combatting climate change. Such countries for instance include Poland, Bulgaria, Romania as well as Slovenia.

The Polish Economy is still heavily dependant on coal for electricity generation with the amount of 71 % (stand 2022), which reflects the need of efficient risk management to facilitate climate protection progress.

With the example of Poland it is visible how much populism plays a role in the importance of risk management. Many climate protection policies are promoted on the costs of the economic well-being of the population, which is the reason that many tend to neglect climate change in toto. This could barely be seen with a US-President trying to attract the favour of his people by closing an eye on climate change for the purpose of economic growth and labour development. Although latter motive might be honorable, it is still no reason to neglect climate change in its totality, but even more to focus on an optimized climate change risk management.

In fact Climate Change Risk Management can itself generate a great amount of labour, considering that it is a new and flourishing sector that welcomes various career changers. In regards to economical prosperity Saudi Arabia´s Crown Prince demonstrates its excellent economically feasible with a heavy emphasis on innovational and futuristic social progress.

Conclusion

Climate Change Risk Management is in a nutshell crucial for the purpose of political as well as economical stability and the core for making climate protection an accessible achievement with the pleasure of the people. This pleasure most obviously has to be taken care of, as the results neglecting climate change in toto, will obviously not be pleasant for next generations to come.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

In the 20th century, the importance of oil and gas were paramount as the fuel for the global economy giving rise to the wealth of Middle Eastern countries and the geopolitical influence of OPEC.

But now in the 21st century with the emerging priorities of green economy and digital technologies, the global competition
has shifted from fossil fuels to critical metals and notably rare earth metals.

The new green economy and the 4th Industrial revolution depends heavily on rare earth elements for electric batteries, solar panels and semiconductors. China has been well placed as the source and hub for these minerals from production and
processing as it had strategically planned since 1980s to make them its strategic resource. Former Chinese leader, Deng Xiaoping is reported to have said in 1992 that “the Middle East has the oil, but China has the rare earths”.

Today, China controls 37% of global rare earth reserves and is responsible for 61% of all rare earth production today. The EU is particularly exposed to geopolitical risks as it imported 98% of its rare earth metals from China in 2021. However, recent
finds in Sweden may alleviate this risk in the future.

Due to the lack of long-term strategic planning in the West, there is now a scramble to catch up rapidly to address systemic deficiencies and find alternative sources for the new strategic resource of 21st century.

Conor Clifford Murphey

Special Envoy for Mining Affairs for His Highness Prince Sayyid Raphael Dakik

Introduction (Section I)

My opinion is coming from more than 20 years of experience, so I believe that education is ultimately a humanizing experience, the most important one. We’re in the right times to approach a new kind of Education. Knowledge is POWER. Educate yourself and then educate others is the right way. 

AWARENESS is the KEY to change! 

What you give to the Existence, to the Life, that is what you get back from it. If you spread love and education from the heart, you will receive soon or later… love and education from the heart!

So if we donate a special education with the goal to educate the heart of human beings, then the planet will receive a real human being.

Education prompts creativity and provides us with the language needed to become an agent of change within our families and communities. To humanize is to make things more civilized, refined, and understandable. 

While parts of our education may make us feel isolated and alone in certain aspects of our everyday life, it eventually leads to a better understanding of ourselves and the world around us.

Section II

If we want to advance social and cultural development in our society it is important to participate in both “formal” and “informal” education, mind and heart.

So if we want to imagine graphically the situation, also considering the last 3 strong years and as consequence the future, we’ve in front of us 2 main pillars: EDUCATION OF THE MIND and EDUCATION OF THE HEART, it’s impossible for the future generation, from my point of view, to teach only from standard academic level, the mind level, otherwise missing a pillar and building of society collapse. We’re Human Beings.

This is the reason why, for example, in my University department we introduced a new concept of “Compassion Training Course” with official certification coming from certified teacher about it. 

COMPASSION is one of the most important soft skills for the actual and future generation. Others essential soft skills to spread and to have are: GRATITUDE, RESPECT, INTEGRITY and TRUTH. I want to repeat again: GRATITUDE, RESPECT, INTEGRITY and TRUTH.

We’re at the beginning of a new era for our wonderful planet, many things are depending from our generation for the future generation, it’s the right time, believe me! Our Mother Earth is changing, we have to follow this change. We’re lucky, we’re active part of an historical time!

Section III

So, go ahead with a bright and new kind of education!

2 pillars, 2 parallel lines, like rails of the train: MIND part + HEART part. Without one of them train derails!

The educators who have made the most impact on my life are the ones who encouraged me to question everything, but not surface and epidermic questions, it’s too simple reply with an automatic question, THE REAL question have to come from the heart during a lesson.

To challenge what was written in the textbook and push myself to the point of discomfort. So, the point is: the schools are the structures / the buildings, but the educators (the teachers) are the keys to entry in these buildings.

But the role of an enlightened educator is not enough and it’s too simple honestly! A new society can be born only with the initial support that starts from the parents, the family. The road must be travelled in parallel also here, educators and family. With this kind of new approach, our children will become real Human Beings, not virtual. As Human beings we have to utilize the heart, heart is our center of universe. Mothers, Fathers, please utilize it! Educators, please utilize it! Women, please utilize it! Men, please utilize it! Children already utilize it, so we have also the opportunity to learn from them!

Section IV

As consequence of this approach, a new society can generate real enlightened Leaders, not “boss”, but Leaders with a bright heart!

If you think that the head of a company have to be a cold business man (or woman) only through the numbers, without an ethical approach without a human approach, you’re not aligned with the future! Think as a human being, not as a number, not as a robot!

So finally, I want to encourage, I want to underline, I want to empathize, to follow a new concept of education for the future… and the future coming from the past as said at the beginning of my article: educating the mind without educating the heart is no education at all.  

Disce, sed a doctis, indoctos ipse doceto

Prof. Mauro Polticchia

Special Envoy for Global Communication Affairs and part of the official delegation of the Private Chancellory of His Highness Prince Raphael Dakik

2 months previously the US FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) has taken over the Sillicon Valley Bank (SVB) on the occasion of its´ bankruptcy. This collapse of the SVB is a very probable trigger of a new financial crisis as we have had witnessed it in year 2007.

Markus van de Weyer a financial expert with over 30 years experience in asset management has commented on this situation, hinting that this is the 2nd greatest bank-bankruptcy of the US since 2007.

Reasons and reactions

One reason according to van de Weyer which contributed to the collapse of the SVB was the lack of buyers who would takeover its´ business. Minimally there has been one interested party, being willing to buy a UK daughter of SVB, but this did not hinder various state-takeover in other public administrations besides the US, like for example Canada.

For the purpose of counteracting a bank run, meaning the withdrawl of deposits by customers, the US issued a deposit insurance in the amount of 250 k $ for customers of the SVB.

Comparison with the GFC 2007

Based on Van de Weyer´s opinion the quality management of banks will drastically be disrupted in case of a state-takeover.

He arguments that besides loss of trust in a bank that cannot handle its own liabilities, customers will be hunting for the highest interests to benefit from the current situation based on a tunnel vision. Van de Weyer hence established a very reasonable comparison with the GFC of 2007.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers according to Van de Weyer will generate a domino effect, which is based on the interconnection of the international financial market on the occasion of the ongoing process of globalization.

He furthermore substantiates his arguments with a previous low interest policy that was existent for decades that has ruptly been disrupted by a ruptly growth of interests (alliteration intended). Such a sudden increase of interest rates will automatically lead to very significant changes of market infrastructures and thus pave the way for a new financial crisis.

Such an increase is visible today, especially on the occasion of the acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS. The European Central Bank for instance has recently (May 10th) initiated a growth of prime interest rates by 25 base points which according to Van de Weyer´s partner Carsten Vennemann is ought to increase further by June 15th on the occasion of strategic differences of opinion within the board of the ECB (European Central Bank).

My Advise

The bankruptcy of a US bank shall indeed not be underestimated on the occasion of our globalized interconnectivity. The US might be far away for a Chinese citizen, however globalization brought us closer than ever.

Thus Van de Weyer´s comparison with the GFC 2007 is definitely more than justified. In regards to the stronger development of international interdependencies I would even say more probable than the GFC 2007. This is especially the case on the occasion of new technological innovations being developed for example in the field of FinTech, which has facilitated Transactions more significantly in contrast to 2007.

My Advise on this occasion is to wisely select asset managers that can optimize one´s wealth administration on the occasion of the above mentioned reasonably anticipated dangers ahead.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

The contemporary priority-setting on renewables based on the European Green Deal and REPowerEU is currently supported by a relatively new financial mechanism established by the European Commission.

Introduction

The mechanism is derived from Article 33 of the Governance Regulation (EU) 2018/1999, being in force since September 2020 and having become operational since January 2021. However the operational implementation of this regulation lasted until 2023, where in February the first project was realized (see below).

The goal of this mechanism is to move EU countries to implement at least a 42.5 % share of renewable energy in gross final consumption by 2030, primarily through national measures. National measures include subventions, G2B agreements as well as others.

The second telos of this regulation is furthermore to enhance the cooperational harmonization of the energy infrastructure across the European Union. Member States shall thus based on the solidarity principle check and support each other inter partes to implement the above mentioned goal.

This especially comes in handy from a situational interpretation as this regulation supports member states whose economy has become under pressure on the occasion of the Covid-19 pandemic, that mainly gave rise to the Recovery Resilience Plan of the EU.

The Mechanism

As outlined in (EU) 2020/1294 the cooperational harmonization is illustrated by the following constellation:

Hosting countries (States that receive payments from the mechanism) shall be linked with contributing countries (States that pay into the mechanism) through tender-bidding processes facilitated by the European Commission and CINEA (European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency).

Latter countries are benefiting from this mechanism as:

1. It enables them to establish projects outside of their own territory, where the project management is more cost-effective than in their own country.
2. Gives geographical efficiency for land-locked countries like Austria or Luxemburg to establish off-shore renewable facilities.

Hosting countries in turn:

1. Can receive additional FDIs for economic growth.
2. Implement the economical growth through the optimization of national labour and up to date climate protection measurements.

First and recent example

3 Months ago on February 2023, Finland participated as a hosting country in this mechanism and allowed solar PV projects located in its territory with a total capacity of up to 400 MW.

Land-Locked Countries like Luxembourg have taken the opportunity to voluntarily contribute with €40 million into this project in the first call for investment.

A second call is sought to be announced for the end of 2023, which is another test of the practical feasibility of the theoretically well thought mechanism.

Opinion

In my opinion the connection of FDIs through mediated tenders by the EU is a great opportunity for economic growth. However for the purpose of effective harmonization, the equality of opportunity for all less-developed European countries to contribute as hosting countries must be strictly kept in mind based on up to date statistics.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

Section I

This five-year period will be recognized as a new beginning, also from a Communication and Marketing
point of view. The global situation started in 2020 was comparable to a huge earthquake, as a consequence it’s needed and vital to reconsider a new approach… and Chess Game is the perfect one to understand how to move into a new condition.

Over the past three years, during my hundreds of speeches and teachings, I have proposed and shared this new “logic”, a new way of thinking, inspiring and concrete: Marketing & Communication are like a game of chess with the aim of getting "a new version of thinking out of the box" with concrete ideas to implement in your daily life (and business) so as not to be unprepared for a possible new scenario.

The goal of any game of chess is to checkmate the other King… as the objective of a brand is to win in the market in competition between others.
In a game of chess, there are two adversaries… in the Business Daily the opponents are the competitors, the market, the time… it’s a new logic to need to understand. It’s not enough to make a right move (rightproduct/service, in Business field) if the timing is wrong. Think about it…

Section II

The game of chess is a complex game, like the real situation around the world where there’re hundreds of variable dynamics.
The chess board represents the market. Each player has sixteen pieces: one king, one queen, two rooks, two bishops, two knights, and eight pawns. Each type of pieces moves differently… and the key is the
time.

The king is the brand. The queen is the most powerful piece, the strategic marketing director that should have a big picture, planning the different moves evaluating the possible scenarios and outcomes, and decides on the next steps / directions.

The knights, rooks and bishops represent the different marketing channels, each piece have own dynamic move to follow.

The pawns represent the value proposition, communicated via the marketing and sales collateral. An outstanding and enlightened Chief Marketing Officer or Chief Strategy Officer (and an astute gameplayer) realizes a well-played pawn (value proposition) can turn the tables.

Section III

So, game of chess declined in daily life and business means:
1) Staying ahead by a few steps to win. Be strategical, train your mind on daily bases
2) Many potential paths to take but no hard and fast rules. Be dynamic, no static
3) Be vigilant and adaptive, pay attention to details
4) Drive into people’s emotions for success
5) “Raise the bar” by benchmarking with the best, if the best are you… raise the bar once again
6) Decide to move in right time

And keep in mind the key: right move in wrong time… it’s wrong move!

Gutta cavat lapidem non vi, sed saepe cadendo

Prof. Mauro Polticchia

Special Envoy for Global Communication Affairs and part of official delegation of Private Chancellory of His Highness Prince Sayyid Raphael Dakik

Section I

Traditionally the role of Statistics as a discipline was to develop, and rigorously study, mathematical methods that would allow one to abstract from data to obtain a reduction in representation in the form of a statistical model.

The statistician has the duty to consider numerous important considerations:
• Why was the data being collected – to address what taks or problem or study?
• What data should be collect? (The data used to be judiciously selected for a relevant question or task)
• How should the data be collected to avoid various biases? (design of experiments/ observation studies / balanced designs /
selection bais etc)
• Parsimony: over the last few hundred years, the primary focus of the statistician has been a dedication to developing methods
that would abstract or distill information from data in an interpretable and parsimonious manner. The process known as
statistical modelling
• Assumptions: this often involved the consideration of various constraints and objectives related to estimation accuracy, validity
of the model for the purpose it was designed, relationship between the model and its assumptions and other competing models.
• Interpretability: the primary objective was to derive a deeper understanding relationships between features and data that was being studied. This can only be achieved if you can understand and capture all aspects of the features and they can be directly
understood with respect to their role in the statistical model abstraction.
• Inference: development of a axiomatised formal framework that allowed for statements (hypotheses) to be formally tested. To allowed for a data driven approach to formal hypothesis invalidation. The crux of the scientific endeavour.

Section II

Ethics: unlike the practice of medicine or law where traditional oaths to uphold ethical principles and practices are widely adopted, the data science, statistics and ML/AI communities have not encapsulated such ethical principles. There are professional guidelines for Royal statitical scietities and characters of various forms in parallel professions such as the Acuarial profession for professional conduct, but with the onset of data science in the form of AI/ML increasingly impinging on every day life perhaps the focus on ethical decision making, model deployment and model use should have
more focus.

Challenge: As a statistician and data scientist the concern is that the modern generation of methods which emerged from the interface of statistics/machine learning/robotics/engineering and computer science really only over the last 15 - 20 years, with the onset of Deep Learning methods, have focussed on a very different core set of principles compared to those followed by statisticians for hundreds of years as outlined in general on the preivous slide.

• This has brought both opportunity in areas such as Artificial General Inteligence (AGI) that are a driver behind wildly successul tools such as the Large
Language Models underpinning applications such as ChatGPT and various other competitors such as Bard and Bing AI.
• Some argue this will be the dawn of a new era of efficiency that has the potential to be as revolutionary to society as the steam train, automobile,
printing press or computer in their eras.
However, the majority of these models are specified not primarily from the perspectives outlined in the previous slide. They dont follow tenants
underpinning the classical practice of statistical science developed over the last few hundred years, where rigorous and fundamental mathematical
analysis is undertaken at each stage of development to carefully understand all aspects of the problem to ensure rigour.
In the modern approach to developing such solutions, the fundemental questions regarding what data to collect, how to collect it and why have been
replaced often with a mentality of using ALL data (to collect, maintain and use in training such models – literally all data in digital form). This has serious
challenges:
• Privacy: these models are known to face many challenges with regard to privacy of an individuals data (the right for ones information/data not to be
used in training such models.)
• Copyright: the ability to prevent such models infringing the ownership rights of IP created and owned by external parties and the ability to determine if
IP has indeed been infringed.

Section III

Veracity: the consideration of the accuracy and validity of the outputs created to be precise and correct when used in increasingly high risk /
consequence settings for decision making such as public policy analsyis, medical diagnostics, automomous vehicles etc.
✓ Objectives: the statistical objectives have been largely replaced in these new AI and ML approaches in favous of a task oriented performance

measures assessment or model validation based on various benchmark data sets. Such an approach fundemntally changes the way one can
conceptualise the validity of a model – taking it from the perspective of what assumptions are made and are they validated for the application and
statistical model designed to one that is instead focussed on which collection of building blocks or input data are most likely to produce a good score
on a task of learning. This is in my opinion one of the fundamental distinctions between the discipline of statistics and the emerging areas of AI and
Deep Learning.
✓ Interpretability: in many of these Deep Learning developments the approach of rigorous understanding and construction of a statistical model has
been all to readily replaced with a lego type approach formed from trial and error to construct black box solutions (or at best grey-box solutions)
that dont share any of the same aspects of interpretability and parsimony enjoyed and promoted by the discipline of statistics. The consequence of
this is that as these methods embed in different scientific disciplines as utilised approaches, one loses the perspective of a fundamental scientific
approach in being able to interegate and understand the Assumptions and Properties of the model being utilised to represent the abstraction of
information from the data.
✓ Cost: the development cost for most of these models are now beyond the scope of universities to develop unless they partner with large industry
partners who have control of the code bases, data sets and compute power to undertake the monumental task of training such models. This
ultimately has an effect on creating a two tier class system in societies based on those who have access to such technologies and can develop them
and those who dont – making competition with such parties increasingly difficult. This is already impacting on many areas of scientific study.
✓ Equity: the fair an equitable access, knowledge and ability to develop or utilise such systems is currently far from uniformly considered in society –
before such systems have been deployed, such issues should be carefully considered.
✓ Law and Regulation: There are scant regulatory systems and legal systems set-up that would ensure accountability for misuse of these powerful
systems and to ensure decision making undertaken increasingly by such systems was performed in a fair and equitable manner according to a
particular countries laws
✓ Education: these systems are having a significant uphevel on the percpetion of learning and the approach to research and training.Both in how it
may be delivered and what content may be included in the syllabus – it is my personal belief that we should not lose sight of fundamentals (rigorous
methods, theorems-proofs, axiomatisation and assumption validation, inference and hypothesis)

Section IV

Costs: The previous figure demonstrates the size (number of model parameters) used in modern AI/ML models based on deep learning transfromer
architectures. For perspective – typically statistical regression models have between 5 to 100/200 model parameters at most in the majority of
applications. However, the earliest generation of these blackbox (learning/regression models) have 0.1 billion upto modern versions this year having
in excess of 1-trillion model parameters.
✓ One has to ask – surely this is not sustainable? Surely this is not efficient? Surely this is not interpretable? Surely this is not a SCIENTIFIC approach when
using these models to UNDERSTAND a data relationship ? What consequences does this have on emergence and development of knowledge?

Section V

There is much to be gained from such systems – but before they can be deployed at scale for nontrivial decision making tasks one cant help but think there is still so much that needs to be considered:
✓ As a scientist it should be the objective that such systems must be understood in rigorous detail –
fundamental properties of these systems mathematically understood – which still has a long way
to go – these systems are still largely BLACK box in nature as compared to typical rigorour imposed
on statistical practice.
✓ As a society we must consider to make these systems safe, reliable, interpretable, free of prejudice and biases, ethical, efficient, environmentally friendly, accurate and equitable.
It is time for regulators, policy makers and key figers to act to ensure that there are guidelines, frameworks in place to ensure that universal principles are adopted in their development, deployment and use of these new systems.

Prof. Gareth W. Peters

Special Envoy for Statistical Affairs for His Highness Prince Sayyid Raphael Dakik

The constant awareness on combatting climate change in legislation has led to the establishment of various bills that intend to pay tribute to it.

Current EU Climate Legislation

One such bill that was passed in the EU legislational system was the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU of 2012, that was significantly amended in year 2018.

The new amendment sets rules and obligations for achieving the EU’s 2020 and 2030 energy efficiency targets with a first milestone for 2030 to collectively ensure an additional reduction of energy consumption by 9%. Furthermore the amendment constructs a headline energy efficiency target for 2030 of at least 32.5%

This is in correlation with the 2030 climate target plan, that includes the ambitional reduction of greenhouse gas emission by 55 % from 2020-2030 on the way to ultimately become climate neutral by 2050.

Notwithstanding this the REPowerEU Plan passed on May 2022 is also keen to substantiate this ambitional project, for it targets to strategically accelerate climate neutrality by becoming independant from REBCO (Russian Export Blend Crude Oil) and its derivatives on the occasion of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Strategic Oil&Gas Alliances

Despite the positive strategic actions in EU legislations and negative idealistic paroles like the total substitution of the oil and gas industry, it is necessary to highlight again that a EU-wide zero carbon policy will still involve oil and gas production and exploration with CCUS technologies. The reason is again as there is still a significant dependance on the oil and gas industry in sectors like petrochemical synthetics as well as further derivatives.

In that light, as international sanctionary law obviously undermines transactions with Russia especially in regards to oil and gas exports, the EU is keen to establish strategic partnerships with former oil rich CIS (former Soviet) states like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

Kazakhstan -a main Gas producer- strategically rebranded their crude oil as KEBCO (Kazakh Export Blend Crude Oil) in order to comply with international sanctionary law as the boundary between REBCO and KEBCO was pre bellum (Russo-Ukrainian war) fluid.

Investment Opportunities

The strategic mindset of the EU leadership gives occasion for investors to be mindful of the evolution of green oil and gas solutions of which the following include besides others:

1. Agronomic Oil and Gas Production
2. Development of the Hydrogen Gas industry (substituting the useage of other Gases)
3. Logistics
4. and last but not least CCUS Technologies, including:

• IT solutions to support CCUS processes
• CCUS facilities powered by green energy (Solar, wind, geothermic etc.)

These are just little examples of a wide range of R&D possibilities which are supported through further EU measurements paving way for innovation.

Conclusion

EU legislation radiates a pragmatic approach to paying tribute to the goals set in the Paris Agreement and thus making way to a greener world.

This is especially supported through innovational supports manifested in subventions and other measurements defined by Brussels.

It also paves way for new diplomatic rapprochement initiatives like exotic CIS States (former USSR) and further intensification of the already strong ties with MENA (especially the GCC).

One obstacle however that can complicate this process is logistics as there is still no great infrastructure between CIS States and the EU as it would still involve Russia as a logistical mediator. However alternative routes may theoretically be possible through the Caspian Sea, whereas the practicability can still be questionable.

All in all it is an exciting era we are living in right now and I am happy to be part of this historic chapter of mankind´s history.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

Introduction

Many people do not only expect but they swear they can feel how soon oil and gas will run out. Well...sooner or later it will be definitely, something even the Shah of Iran mentioned self-confidently in the 1970s. However being a LLM-Student, we must focus on the definition -Typical for Lawyers- of the term "sooner and later". Is it really so soon as many people think?

Peak Oil Theory

Using Oil and Gas excessively since the industrial revolution in the 19th century, Geologists are speaking of a Peak Oil Theory that signifies that Oil and Gas Production will gradually rise until there is a point of no return with a radical fall.

This situation will be drastic in case alternative energy sources are not generated as we will thus face a total shut down. Especially on the occasion of the Russo-Ukrainian war and the effects of international sanctionary law against Russia, the scenario of this total shut down is since the Oil and Gas Crisis of the 1970s cosmopolitinally more present in people´s minds than ever.

Statistics

There are various opinions on the anticipated date of run out.

International Energy Agency

According to World Energy Outlook Study of the international Energy Agency in 2015, Oil and Gas is both most likely to run out in approximately 50 years.

American Petroleum Institute

Previously in year 1999 however the American Petroleum Institute anticipated a run out between the 2060s and 2090s, staying open for new oil and gas fields to be explorated.

Cambridge Energy Research Associates

Based on the latter premise, the CERA underlined that there is still a great potential of exploring new fossil fuels we are still not aware of, putting the above two estimations in the shadows. This would constitute an anticipation of a run out in the late 22nd century.

Evaluation

Given the current trivial, economical and scientific dependance we have on the Oil and Gas Industry as well as the current state of innovation in alternativity and development, it would be unwise to easily demand a total detachment from the oil and gas industry in this century. Despite triviality showing our dependance in logistics, the petrochemical sector is the underestimated hidden Octopus on which we should focus. It is simply said too hard to get rid of Oil and Gas.

• Textiles
• Technological Devices
• Furnitures

any many other sectors are just little examples of how the petrochemical sector is defining our contemporary life.

Despite recycling and waste management, our society is in need of more innovation in the field of pertrochemicals in order to make a smooth transition in what is to become the shut down.

A greater focus on renewables and hydrogen technology are just few other examples to mention.

And this is in the end, why I decided to specialize in the field of Oil and Gas Law, for the governmental aspects of accelerating and assessing innovation will be a skill I want to contribute to society.

So whenever the shut down might be, let us network and gather ideas and give our best to research.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik

A simple introduction showing the benefits of Lobbyism

Climate Lobbyism is a powerful mechanism of translating the needs of stakeholders to political decision makers. If done rightly, it can save our future.

But what does Lobbyism exactly mean?

Lobbyism is a term that is etymologically derived from "lobby" which was in the ancient roman empire the foreroom of the Roman Senate. In this foreroom the senators have been open to include the point of views of certain influential stakeholders that were not necessarily elected, but given their reputation -as experts- very important to listen to.

In the modern era (19th century) the term "lobby" is furthermore substantiated on a situation in which US Congress provisorically housed in DC Hotels. Senators and representatives hence realized important meetings with experts and stakeholders in the Hotel-Lobbies. As these impactful meetings were -because of lack of alternativity- in hotel lobbies, these stakeholders (incl. Professionals, Academics, Experts, etc.) were thus termed "Lobbyists".

Controversy

But as everything in life, we have opponents who more and more try to put Lobbyism in blame. Personalities that are representative for negative opinions against Lobbyists are often left-winged political thinkers who condemn Lobbyists for advising politicians without having a legitimized mandate from the people.

However the idea of mal-legitimization is in itself controverse as more and more Legislatures legally and factually included Lobbyism on the occasion of the Congresses reliance on Specialists.

Elective Democracy is fine as means of formally choosing representatives, but Lobbyists constructively fill this formal legitimization with substantial know how in a certain field. This furthermore fills the elective aspect of democracy with more professionalism, innovation and the will to perform liberal social commitments.

Examples for this can be sustainability experts who advise Members of Parliaments on certain effects that a bill might have or economists who visualize certain prognoses in order to advise politicians.

Lobbyism is hence a tool of including professionality and expertise in political decision making which in its essence saves a democracy from becoming a failed state of made up of elected officials who have no expertise within their office.

Lobbyism as an established method

Despite the established Lobby industry in the US, the European Union has a posteriori found out more and more about the importance of Lobbyism as an important democratic organ of political decision making.

Thus consultancy with Lobbyists is included in legislative procedures in order to generate a technocratic legislature substantiated with expertise and research based upon which rule of law can be more and more solidified.

Climate Change

In regards to climate change Lobbyism is thus an excellent tool where experts can gather in order to audit legislative and governmental officials on the scientific valuation of their decisions.

It is in fact through the pressure of political advocates (another term for Lobbyists) that governmental officials take a greener policy in mind.

Germany and other European countries are excellent examples for this evolution in legislative decision making.

Oil and Gas Industry

More and more people right now think that the oil and gas industry might have a negative impact on Climate Change Lobbyism as their profit is parsimoniously said generated through polluting the environment. But this prejudice is way too farfetched. It is like to think that Oil and Gas can be substituted from today to tomorrow which is in light of our dependence on the synthetical industry, the petrochemical sub branch of the oil and gas industry, too idealistic than logical.

It is because of this that Scientific departments of Universities as well as R&D departments of Oil and Gas companies worldwide are dedicated to improve "CCUS technologies" in order to mitigate Carbon Dioxide emissions and to improve it further in order to generate zero emission facilities.

Conclusion

What the world needs to see is more and more experts to come together for a joint impact on political decision making. These experts include besides others:

1. Academics (R&D experts)
2. Professionals (Corporate Experts)
3. Enthusiasts (Reputation and Hospitality Experts)
4. Well networked people (Human Interaction Experts)
5. Engineers (Technical Experts)
6. etc. etc. etc.

This is the best way to fill democracy with substantial expertise and to save it from the veil of arrogance, motivated by stinginess, selfishness and ignorance.

HH Prince Raphael Dakik